The SCRREEN project focuses on critical raw materials (CRMs), i.e. metals, minerals and biotic materials which have a combination of two factors in the EU – a high economic importance and a high supply risk (official list of CRMs available here). Within the project, LGI contributes to the exploration of the major trends in future EU demands for these CRMs up until 2035. By analysing the demand scenarios of specific CRM-intensive products like electric vehicles, wind turbines or smart phones, it is possible to estimate the future demand and criticality of the associated CRMs.
LGI’s Antoine Monnet and Amar Ait Abderrahim developed a two-step methodology to estimate these trends. First, a quantitative central demand scenario is built for one CRM used in a given CRM-intensive product. Then, this scenario is challenged by a PESTEL analysis* which aims to find and classify drivers which could impact the central scenario.
An Ideation workshop was organised the 31st January in Brussels with more than 20 CRM experts from different domains. The experts were organised into six groups to treat the different market applications (electric vehicles, wind turbines, smartphones & PCs, TVs, photovoltaic panels, jet engines), and identify the main drivers having an impact in on the demand trends. The drivers were positioned in a two-axes canvas representing the positive or negative impact and the probability to occur. More than 60 factors were identified, taking the most of the collective intelligence of the group of experts. Watch out for our incoming publication to find out about these experts’ opinions on the topic!
*Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal
For more details visit the SCRREEN website.