How can hydropower adapt to climate change? Lessons learnt from the Focus-Africa project

As part of Focus-Africa, LGI was involved in the assessment of the socio-economic impact of a case study producing seasonal meteorological forecasts for the hydropower sector in Tanzania. Focus Africa is a research project funded by the European commission on adaptation to climate change. This project developed climate services for the agriculture, water, infrastructure and energy sectors through 8 case studies in the Southern African Development Community in order to empower organizations and individuals with information enabling them to make climate smart decisions.
A four-year journey filled with key lessons on the most effective ways to develop these forecasts and learnings on their potential impact.

Let’s start from the beginning. What are climate services?

According to the World Meteorological Organisation, climate services are the provision and use of climate data, information and knowledge to assist decision-making¹. In other words, the climate information (e.g., rainfall, droughts, temperature) helps individuals and organizations make climate-smart decisions, as long as there is an effective communication between the service provider and the recipient, and an easy way to access the information in time for action.

These services are valuable across many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure, energy, health and insurance; and include a range of forecasts: Short-term weather forecasts for daily predictions, seasonal forecasts for the months ahead and climate projections that extend decades into the future. They are essential for climate adaptation as they provide people the information and tools to adjust their practices to a changing climate.

For example, I am a smallholder farmer and I need information on precipitations and temperature in the coming season. I will participate in the co-design of seasonal forecasts with the climate services provider to ensure I get the information I truly need, in a format that I can understand. Ultimately, I will be able to make informed decisions about the types of crops best suited to the expected conditions and the ideal planting time, helping me adapt to a changing climate.

Another example in the energy sector: I manage a hydropower plant. The most useful information for me are the precipitations and droughts expected in the coming months to adapt the management of my hydropower plant depending on the rainfall expected. If a lot of rain is expected, I will regulate the water levels, releases, and storage capacities of the reservoir, potentially storing more water in the reservoir for use during drier periods. And in the event of exceptionally high rainfall, preparedness measures may be triggered to protect the population living near the hydropower plants from potential flooding.

Here are some questions climate services can address depending on sectors:

Hydropower generation is heavily impacted by climate change in Tanzania

Hydropower is a source of energy that generates power by using the natural flow of moving water. In 2023, hydropower generates more electricity than all other renewable technologies combined and is expected to remain the world’s largest source of renewable electricity generation into the 2030s². In Tanzania, hydropower represents 29% of the country electricity generation mix³. In comparison, it makes up 11.5% of the national electricity mix in France, the highest in the European Union⁴.

Tanzania is regularly affected by weather hazards and natural disasters including extreme rainfall and floods, droughts, storms and high temperatures). The country is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability, especially islands and coastal areas, which are highly susceptible to sea level rise. These weather and climate events have significantly threatened people's livelihoods and affected key sectors of the economy⁵. Changing rainfall patterns and recent droughts have dramatically reduced the hydropower potential, and impacted water availability in the long-term leading to an increased reliance on other forms of electricity generation, primarily coal and gas.⁶⁷

The Focus-Africa project has initiated several activities with the project partners involved: The Tanzanian Meteorological Authority, the national electricity company TANESCO, the World Energy Meteorological Council, the Meteorological Office UK and LGI Sustainable Innovation. During this time, mission trips were organized in Tanzania, stakeholder workshops were held, and remote discussions took place regularly to ensure service co-design and build capacity.

The climate services developed in CS6 are seasonal forecasts that are expected to improve the planning and management of hydropower generation, helping TANESCO make climate smart decisions. It is delivered through a user-friendly hydropower model dashboard accessible via a web-based application.

How are climate services in hydropower beneficial for users and society?

As part of the impact assessment team of the project, my goal was to make sure that the service delivered was actually useful and tailored to the needs of the user. A full methodology was developed for the socio-economic impact assessment of the climate services. The expected benefits of this service are the following:

Expected benefits of climate services for the user TANESCO

Assumptions were also made on how these CS could impact the Tanzanian population in the longer term:

• As a larger supply of electricity is available to meet the demand, this can help address situations where power shortages occur, reducing the likelihood of power outages during periods of high electricity demand. The reliability of the energy generated, and therefore energy security is expected to improve.
• An increased hydropower generation would indirectly affect population living below the poverty line and provide social benefits for the Tanzanian population: An increased supply of energy can lead to more affordable electricity prices for the users as the demand does not exceed the offer anymore, an improved energy access in rural areas with a focus on rural electrification, and an improved energy access for women. Improved energy access can indeed help access clean cooking solutions to address the issue of indoor air pollution caused by traditional cooking methods, such as charcoal or firewood. Efficient cookstoves or electricity for cooking would reduce health risks and improve the overall well-being of individuals, particularly women who are disproportionately affected by the lack of modern energy services.

Focus Africa concluded in December 2024. If you’d like to learn more about the results, have a look at our resources on the FOCUS-Africa website.

Watch our final project video on the FOCUS-Africa YouTube channel showcasing our impactful work in Tanzania and Malawi! Discover how the innovative TEAL Tool is helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change through improved seasonal forecasting and agricultural decision-making.

If you are interested in climate services, reach out to us, climate adaptation is one of our key topics at LGI.